DENVER — Bye the bye, it’s been a disappointing start, and encouraging finish to the season’s first half.
The Broncos are 3-5. That’s the bad.
But they enter their bye weekend with two consecutive wins – an aesthetically unappealing performance against the struggling Green Bay Packers and a dominant effort in a long-awaited victory against the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s the good.
There are nine weeks down in this 18-week season. There are nine games on the other side of the bye, starting with the most difficult of the remaining challenges, a Monday night road game at Buffalo where talented quarterback Josh Allen and the perennial playoff-bound Bills await.
>Video above: Predictions for the rest of the Broncos' season
All that is known about a team with a losing record at the halfway point is it can go either way.
See the Broncos-Jacksonville game last year in London.
Both teams were 2-5 entering their matchup across the pond. The Broncos won, giving them a 3-5 record entering their bye week. They lost seven of their next eight, fired their head coach Nathaniel Hackett the day after Christmas, and finished 5-12.
Jacksonville was 2-6 after its loss to the Broncos, but finished with five straight wins, made the playoffs with a 9-8 record, beat the Chargers in a first-round postseason game and gave the eventual Super Bowl-champion Chiefs all they could handle in a second-round game.
So while it’s tempting to believe the Broncos are on the verge of taking off in the second half, all we know at this point is what we know. Here’s the Good and the Bad of the Broncos’ 2023 season to date:
GOOD
1. Better Russ
Upon acquiring Russell Wilson from Seattle prior to last season, the quarterback had ranked among the top 10 passers in nine of his first 10 NFL seasons with a 14th-place ranking his exception. In his first season with the Broncos, Wilson ranked 27th. New head coach Sean Payton has accentuated Wilson’s strengths, and minimized his weaknesses to the point Wilson has rebounded to becoming the league's 4th-ranked passer thanks to a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 16 to 4, easily the league’s best among quarterbacks who have thrown at least two touchdown passes.
His 66.1 completion percentage is a dramatic improvement from his career-worst 60.5 a year ago. And even when he struggled last year, Wilson almost never makes a “choke” throw. When the receiver is open in the end zone, he doesn’t beach it or sail it. He nails it.
And after losing 15 pounds in the offseason, Wilson is moving better, as evidenced by his 18 rushing first downs and 201 yards rushing.
2. Comeback against the Bears
The Broncos and Bears were both 0-3 going into their week 4 matchup at Soldier Field. The only difference was the Broncos were coming off a 50-point loss at Miami. Still reeling from their South Florida debacle, the Broncos fell behind the Bears, 28-7 with four minutes left in the third quarter.
But Wilson began rallying the Broncos with two touchdown passes that sandwiched the third and fourth quarters and a Coop-n-score by Jonathon Cooper off a strip-sack by fellow edge rusher Nik Bonitto tied the game, 28-28. A 51-yard field goal by Wil Lutz with 1:46 remaining and a defensive stand against Bears’ quarterback Justin Fields, who had otherwise been having a career-best game, lifted Denver to a 31-28 victory.
The win showed the Broncos would not be the league’s worst team. Baby steps.
3. Snapping the Chiefs skid
After losing 16 in a row to the Chiefs, a skid that carried through eight calendar years, the game finally went the Broncos way. The no-longer maligned Denver defense – boosted by the return from injury of outside linebacker Baron Browning, and insertion of cornerbacks Ja’Quan McMillian and Fabian Moreau – forced four Chiefs’ turnovers, three against otherwise sensational quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The key turnover was Kansas City’s Mecole Hardman muffing a punt at his own 10-yard line, with the fumble recovered by rookie linebacker Drew Sanders. Instead of getting the ball down 14-9, with 11:24 left in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs fell behind 21-9 as Wilson’s third touchdown pass closed out a two-play drive and the Broncos finished up for a 24-9 win.
Honorable mention: The emergence of rookie running back Jaleel McLaughlin. The return from knee injury of running back Javonte Williams. The return to form of receiver Courtland Sutton. Lutz delivering 50+ field goal game-winners against the Bears and Packers.
BAD
1. Still limited Russ
In the Broncos’ last four games, Wilson has averaged less than 150 passing yards a game. Payton has increasingly taken a conservative approach as the Broncos’ passing game has been heavy with screens and flares to the running backs, or deep balls to his receivers. The mid-range throws – the bread-n-butter of most NFL passing attacks – have become increasingly rare.
And Wilson’s 26 sacks are third-most in the league overall and easily the most among the NFL’s top 15-rated passers.
2. 70-20
The Dolphins not only scored 70 points – tied for the second-most in NFL regular season history – they accumulated an NFL-record 726 total yards. Good came from humiliation, however, as the Broncos replaced veteran edge rusher Randy Gregory with Bonitto and Essang Bassey with McMillian and returned the injured Justin Simmons and Josey Jewell to the lineup.
The 70 points left the Denver D last in scoring defense for several weeks but it is now up to No. 29 with 28.3 points per game. Take away the 70-point catastrophe and the Broncos have allowed a respectable 22.3 points per game, which would rank 20th.
3. Hackett’s Revenge
You live and learn and make the same mistakes all over again. Payton knew better. Give him a chance to do it all over again, he would have done it over again. But Payton let his guard down in a training-camp interview with USA TODAY by disparaging his predecessor Hackett for his coaching job last year.
Compounding the inflaming comments was Hackett had caught on as the New York Jets’ offensive coordinator and the Jets were playing the Broncos in week 5.
Motivated to win for Hackett’s sake, the Jets’ offense steamrolled the Denver D for 234 rushing yards and New York’s defense with 29 seconds remaining got a 39-yard touchdown return off a Wilson fumble to win 31-21.
Honorable mention: Blowing a 21-3 lead against Washington. Two in-game ejections, followed by a two-game suspension of safety Kareem Jackson. Lutz missing an extra point and field goal in a 1-point season-opening loss to the Raiders, who have since stumbled so badly they fired head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler. Season-ending injuries to Tim Patrick, Caden Sterns and Jonas Griffith and continuous hamstring maladies of tight end Greg Dulcich.
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