ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — John Elway was uncanny with his successful draft picks early in his term as the Broncos’ general manager.
Then there was the donut period where the team’s on-field success meant drafting late in rounds where disappointments lie.
And then in the last two years, the early results suggest Elway and his top deputy Matt Russell have regained their groove as they picked closer to the top of the rounds.
The NFL Draft that runs Thursday through Saturday will be new territory for Elway and Russell and not only because they will be operating via video conferences from the discomforts of their own homes. The No. 15 pick in the first round will put the Broncos in the middle of things. Not early, not late, but squeezed from all sides.
How will they fare? Here is a round by round look at the best, and worst, of the Broncos’ drafts since Elway took charge of football operations in 2011:
First round
Best: Von Miller, OLB, No. 2 overall, 2011
Not so good: Paxton Lynch, QB, No. 26, 2016
Others: Bradley Chubb, Noah Fant, Sylvester Williams, Garett Bolles, Bradley Roby, Shane Ray
Comment: Elway can have 10 more drafts and never top his first-ever selection. Miller has 8 Pro Bowls in 9 seasons, an average of 11.8 sacks a regular season and a Super Bowl MVP. He is another strong year or two away from becoming a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
The miss on Paxton set the team back a couple years. It didn’t help he lost the head coach who was involved in drafting him, Gary Kubiak, to medical reasons.
The Broncos have made just eight selections in this round, as they traded out in 2012 and haven’t had two picks in the first since 2010 when Josh McDaniels took Demaryius Thomas and Tim Tebow, a year after he maneuvered to take Knowshon Moreno and Robert Ayers in the first round.
Second round
Best: Derek Wolfe, defensive lineman, No. 36, 2012; Courtland Sutton, receiver, No. 40, 2018
Not so good: Montee Ball, running back, No. 58, 2013
Others: Dalton Risner, Drew Lock, Brock Osweiler, DeMarcus Walker, Adam Gotsis, Ty Sambrailo, Cody Latimer, Brock Osweiler, Rahim Moore, Orlando Franklin
Comment: Wolfe has been the most productive second-round pick, but Sutton seems poised to become a star.
Ball set the NCAA rushing record at Wisconsin, but a preseason bout with appendicitis prior to his second season of 2014 set him back. And then personal addiction demons brought a premature end to his career.
The 13 selections in the second are the most in any round by the Elway/Russell team. There’s been some unfortunate misses in this round but Elway/Russell have hit the past two years with Sutton, Risner and Lock.
Third round
Best: Justin Simmons, safety, No. 98, 2016
Not so good: Carlos Henderson, receiver, No. 82, 2017
Others: Dre’Mont Jones, Royce Freeman, Isaac Yiadom, Brendan Langley, Jeff Heuerman, Michael Schofield, Kayvon Webster, Ronnie Hillman, Nate Irving.
Comment: It’s supposed to be a starter’s round, but the Broncos struggled here until they hit with Simmons and Jones in the past four years. Heuerman and Hillman emerged as starters after a couple years of coming off the bench and Schofield, a disappointment early, emerged into a starter for the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 team although his best years came with the Chargers.
Fourth round
Best: Julius Thomas, tight end, No. 129, 2011
Not so good: Philip Blake, center, 108, 2012
Others: Josey Jewell, DaeSean Hamilton, Devontae Booker, Max Garcia, Omar Bolden, Quinton Carter.
Comment: Thomas was a boom-or-bust pick who was perfect for the fourth round. And he was both boom and bust as when he was healthy he was a Pro Bowling matchup nightmare for defenses. But he was only healthy for 1 ½ seasons of his 4-year stay in Denver.
Blake never played in a game for the Broncos or in the NFL, although he did catch on in the Canadian Football League.
Otherwise, this is a group of solid players with left guard Garcia starting the most games (41).
The fourth round is tied with the first round for lowest-number of picks with eight.
Fifth round
Best: Malik Jackson, defensive lineman, No. 137, 2012
Not so good: Quanterus Smith, defensive end, No. 146, 2013
Others: Justin Hollins, Troy Fumagalli, Jake Butt, Isaiah McKenzie, Connor McGovern, Lorenzo Doss, Lamin Barrow, Tavarres King
Comment: McGovern rivals Jackson for the best pick. Both began slowly then then developed into starters. Each left after four seasons for free agency and signed lucrative, multiyear contracts with other teams. Jackson gets the nod, though, because he was a dominant force up front for the Broncos’ superb 2015 defense.
Smith was a boom-or-bust pick as a pass-rushing defensive end. He played in 15 games in his second season of 2014 with no sacks. Three years later he was arrested for armed robbery in Georgia.
Sixth round
Best: Danny Trevathan, inside linebacker, No. 188, 2012; Matt Paradis, center, No. 207, 2014
Not so good: Too close to call between several.
Others: Andy Janovich, Will Parks, Vinston Painter, Mike Mohamed, Juwann Winfree, Sam Jones, Keishawn Bierria, De’Angelo Henderson, Darius Kilgo.
Comment: Trevathan and Paradis were both key starters on the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 title team. And both went on to get nice contracts after four seasons with the Broncos.
The fullback Janovich and defensive back Parks were also nice sixth-round picks.
Seventh round
Best: Trevor Siemian, quarterback, No. 250, 2015; Virgil Green, tight end, No. 204, 2011
Not so good: Josh Furman, safety, No. 252, 2015
Others: David Williams, Chad Kelly, Riley Dixon, Taurean Nixon, Josh Furman, Corey Nelson, Zac Dysert, Jeremy Beal.
Comment: It was Siemian -- a late, 7th-round pick -- and not first-rounder Paxton Lynch, who succeeded Peyton Manning as the Broncos’ starting quarterback in 2015-16.
Green was a blocking tight end who started 49 games in seven seasons with the Broncos and he’s about to enter his 10th NFL season overall.
Furman was not only a rookie cut, he wasn’t signed to the team’s practice squad.
Dixon was also a nice 7th-round pick as a punter. The Broncos mistakenly gave up on him too soon. Chad Kelly was the Broncos’ only Mr. Irrelevant selection but he was remembered for so much more. He was both an exciting preseason quarterback whose career as a backup was set back when he got carried away at Von Miller’s Halloween Party and wound up getting arrested after entering a stranger’s home.
Undrafted
Best: Chris Harris Jr., cornerback, 2011
Not so good: No such thing as an undrafted bust.
Others: Phillip Lindsay, C.J. Anderson, Alexander Johnson, Lerentee McCray
Comment: Harris was a four-time Pro Bowler and an eight-year starter after receiving a mere $2,000 signing bonus following the lockout of 2011.
Lindsay got a $15,000 has begun his career back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Anderson has a 1,000-yard season and averaged 78 rushing yards in three postseason games of 2015 that ended with a Super Bowl title.
Johnson really falls under his own category as he sat our three years after his fine college career at Tennessee to deal with legal charges in which he was eventually found not guilty.
McCray got a hefty $17,000 signing bonus as an undrafted rookie in 2013 but after playing sparingly for the Broncos in 2014-15, he is still an active NFL player with Jacksonville.