DENVER — Thing is, Russell Wilson is almost identical to the quarterback the Broncos thought they were getting when Denver gave up a large bulk of their future and present to acquire him.
In 10 previous years with the Seattle Seahawks – nine of them successful – Wilson averaged 33 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions while taking 43 sacks a season for a 101.8 passer rating. He has 26 touchdown passes with 8 interceptions and 45 sacks for a 98.0 rating this season with two games remaining.
And in his last four years in Seattle, Wilson averaged 353 rushing yards a season. He has 341 yards rushing this year with two games remaining.
Two games in which Wilson won't get to finish off those numbers if all goes well with Jarrett Stidham.
Wilson has also been an effective off-script, scrambling player for the Broncos this year. He's been especially good in the clutch. He engineered game-winning, fourth-quarter scoring drives to beat the Bears, Packers, Bills and Vikings this year and nearly did the same against Washington and New England.
That's Russ. That's who he is.
No doubt he's lost some athleticism in terms of his ability to escape now that he's 35 years old compared to his early years in Seattle. But those legs had started to slow in his final two years in Seattle, also. He was still mostly effective, and general manager George Paton believed he would still be effective with the Broncos.
Yet, less than two years after the Broncos gave up two first-round draft picks, two second-round picks, two starters (Noah Fant and Shelby Harris) and a backup quarterback (Drew Lock), Wilson is all but history in Denver.
Working against Wilson were two things.
One, his disappointing first season in Denver in 2022. He did not play wel for head coach Nathaniel Hackett in posting a 4-11 record and ranking No. 27 among NFL passers. Even though Wilson improved dramatically this year, last year's disappointment enveloped into the overall evaluation he received from fans, the media and Broncos' decision-makers this season.
The other reason why Wilson is on borrowed backup quarterback time for the Broncos is he was deemed not the right man to operate the offensive system that Sean Payton coaches. In his 15 previous seasons as the Saints' head coach, Payton's Saints 13 times ranked in the top 9 in total offense – and six times were No. 1. And 12 times the Payton-era Saints ranked in the top 10 in scoring – twice leading the league in points.
The Broncos through 15 games this year are No. 25 in total offense and No. 16 in scoring.
Payton is highly detailed-oriented to the point of having Wilson stand up this year, rather get up from a knee, in the huddle in order to get to the line of scrimmage quicker and save a second or two on the play clock. Payton wants his game plan executed precisely so. He wants to be in control of the game plan, the play call, the game. It works that way. His way. It's proven to work this way.
Wilson, contrarily, is at his best when the play breaks down. Draw it up in the dirt and let's go. His brand is exciting football. Bad as it can look through long stretches of the game, never count him out. Every player has strengths and weaknesses. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning weren't mobile. Still, great quarterbacks. Wilson is best on the move, improvising as he goes.
He is best when Payton was not in control. That doesn't mean Wilson isn't great at what he does. It just means Payton and Russ are not a fit.
It was telling when Payton described Wilson's near fourth-quarter heroics Sunday against New England as: "It was more spontaneous. ... But it’s hard to say you’re going to make a living that way as your base offense.”
There were signs Wilson's benching was coming, contract complications or not. Payton yelled at him on the sideline during the win against the Chargers in SoFi Stadium and the following week's loss at Detroit. Both outbursts can be viewed as signs of building frustration.
And then Tuesday during a conference call with the local media, Payton was more candid than usual when he said, "Right now, we’re average to below-average, I would say, in a lot of things offensively, and it’s not good enough.'''
And so Russ is benched, and most likely he will be released after this season, even though Broncos owner Greg Penner will have to eat the quarterback's $39 million guaranteed payout for 2024. There will be severely damaging salary cap ramifications, but the Broncos are in the business of wins and losses, not profits. They will save $37 million in 2025 cash by cutting Wilson before March 17 but the dead cap charges will be difficult to overcome.
So be it in the Broncos' ongoing search for a quarterback that can carry them back to the Super Bowl. A restructured contract is not the answer because that still leaves Payton with a quarterback who doesn't quite operate the offense the way the detailed coach wants. Stidham will get a two-game audition, but names like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins will also be mentioned as free-agent possibilities during the offseason.
Wilson's playing style worked in Seattle, especially early in his career when he had Marshawn Lynch running the ball, an underrated group of big-play receivers and the Legion of Boom dominating on defense.
Had Wilson not been intercepted in the final seconds by Malcolm Butler at the goal line in Super Bowl 49 (XLIX), the Legion of Boom may have surpassed the 2000 Baltimore Ravens as the greatest NFL defense since the '85 Bears.
Denver's defense made a remarkable in-season turnaround in 2023, and running back Javonte Williams made a nice comeback from ACL surgery, but otherwise the Broncos need to be better at both spots next year. Their top rusher, Williams, ranks 26th in the league with 701 yards. Their top receiver, Courtland Sutton, is 48th with 58 catches and 39th with 770 receiving yards. Sutton is third with 10 touchdown catches. But the Broncos next year need to add more juice at running back, receiver and tight end. That's all. Oh, and quarterback. And probably a center as Lloyd Cushenberry III is a free agent. That's it.
Wilson will one day have his bust placed in the Hall of Fame Museum in Canton, Ohio. Maybe even on the first ballot. He should be voted in on the first ballot. But as his career grows older, first Pete Carroll and now Sean Payton have decided their teams are better off without him. The book isn't completely closed on Wilson in Denver – he is one play away from playing again in the Broncos' final two games.
But that's his only hope. Can't blame the Broncos for trying when they gave up so much to get Wilson. Quarterback had been the problem since Manning retired, remember? Paton and the Broncos went for it when they traded for him. The Broncos always go for it.
But when they go for it again next year, they will do so without Russ.
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