DENVER — The Broncos feel this year’s group of draftable quarterbacks is “six or seven deep.”
This according to the team’s general manager George Paton in an interview with 9NEWS last week at the NFL owners meetings in Orlando.
To further sift the QB sands, there is a top three in Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. And there is a second tier trio of J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr.
Spencer Rattler makes seven.
The Broncos with the No. 12 overall draft pick need one of those guys.
There’s some chance the QBs the Broncos really like are gone and they wind up taking, say, tight end Brock Bowers or one of the offensive tackles or edge rushers listed in their top 15 on Denver’s draft board -- with the idea of taking a quarterback later in the draft.
But that scenario would result in such a waste of time.
Head coach Sean Payton and GM Paton have been crisscrossed the country to meet with, and work out, the top passing prospects, spending hours watching tape, ranking the quarterbacks not only in terms of talent and leadership, but by which ones best fit Payton and his fairly structured, quick-read, quick-release, combination-route passing system.
Like so many, I enjoy talking quarterbacks, whether they’re from the past, present or future. Each year at the three big national NFL events of the Super Bowl, Combine and NFL owners meetings, the two quarterback experts I try to seek out are Jim Miller and Greg Cosell.
Miller is a former NFL quarterback – he went 11-2 for the Bears in 2001 – who is a color analyst on Bears’ preseason broadcasts, college games for Westwood radio and joins co-host Pat Kirwan on the in-depth “Moving the Chains” show on Sirius XM radio.
Miller often shouts, “Will to Win!” when I walk by in teasing reference to the Tim Tebow book I and other members of the Denver Post staff wrote on his magical 2011 season with the Broncos.
Cosell, a nephew of the late, great Howard Cosell, evaluates quarterbacks for The 33rd Team and is a longtime NFL analyst for NFL Films.
Miller and Greg Cosell are two of the most respected quarterback evaluators who have an idea who among this year’s draftable prospects would fit well with the Broncos: Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr.
“I don’t have inside information at all about this but as a pure talent, (Nix) would strike me as a Sean Payton-type of quarterback,’’ Cosell said. “He executes the offense. And he does it smartly. He was incredibly sharp.”
“I don’t think they would be disappointed if Penix was there,’’ Miller said. “If they can get up to get Drake Maye, I think that would be a great thing for them but I don’t know if they have the firepower to do it. You can always find a way. If they could pull that off it would be incredible but I just don’t see New England wanting to trade out of that No. 3 spot.
“I think the Raiders right behind you, you have to be worried about. They’re (draft pick number) 13. I think they want Penix.’’
As for McCarthy, the Michigan quarterback who is often mentioned as a preferred choice of the Broncos, Cosell and Miller seem baffled by the all the love he’s been getting as the No. 4 QB in this draft.
“I don’t think McCarthy’s tape is very good,’’ Cosell said. “I’ve talked to a lot of people about McCarthy. I don’t know where all this momentum is coming from because I’ve not talked to anyone – I’m talking about people in the league – who see McCarthy that way.’’
The McCarthy buzz seemed to begin Feb. 21, when Minnesota Vikings announcer Paul Allen said he heard from a reliable source that Sean Payton “is quite enamored with J.J. McCarthy.”
And then Allen’s Vikings, who are also expected to take a quarterback with their No. 11 overall draft pick, acquired Houston’s No. 23 pick, fueling speculation they would be trading up to fend off the Broncos for McCarthy.
Such a move should not break the Broncos’ hearts according to Miller and Cosell. Miller likens McCarthy to a pitcher who only has one pitch.
“Remember when Colin Kaepernick was with (Jim) Harbaugh out in San Francisco?’’ Miller said. “Everything was a fastball. He could never make touch throws. He could never go up and down, over the linebacker because everything was a three-quarter (delivery) fastball. (McCarthy’s) a lot like that and he misses a lot of throws over the middle where he’s behind the receiver.”
As for the top three quarterbacks, Cosell and Miller, who were interviewed separately for this story, both have Jayden Daniels as their No. 1.
“He’s a combination of an efficient player and an explosive player,” Cosell said of Daniels.
Said Miller: “I like Jayden Daniels. Then Drake Maye, then Caleb Williams.”
Here's a more in-depth look at each of the top six quarterbacks from Miller and Cosell, including a couple scouting report evaluations from Cosell, with players’ age at the start of the NFL season:
Jayden Daniels, Arizona St./LSU, 23, 6-4, 210
Had a rough junior season for Herm Edwards at Arizona State in 2021, throwing for just 10 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. But he flourished after transferring to LSU, combining for 57 touchdown passes against just 7 interceptions and rushing for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns in his two seasons there. He won the Heisman last year.
Cosell scouting report:
- Decisive within the context of the offense both reading and throwing the ball and leaving the pocket to run.
- Showed excellent awareness for check downs when the deeper route concepts did not present a clean read.
- Arm strength on the average-to-slightly above scale. Deep balls had a tendency to lose energy on the back end.
Cosell: “I love the way he’s improved. He’s a real explosive athlete but he does not look to run. He looks to play from the pocket. I love the way he drops back, the way he sets. He sees things well. He’s not a power arm but you don’t need a power arm. He can make the throws. He’s got good progression reading through his tape.”
Miller: “For me, Jayden Daniels is a five-year starter, he’s gotten better every single year. He makes great decisions. He can make every pass imaginable. He’s like Lamar Jackson running the football. The guy had over 1,100 yards rushing – he will break your back with his scrambles. He’s a tough kid.
“He’s got to learn to slide and get out of harm’s way because he does have a slight build. He’s (6-3 5/8, 210). He’ll probably put on another 10 pounds. Herm Edwards called him another Randall Cunningham. That’s who he reminded him of. And he can lead. He’s tough. So I like him.’’
Caleb Williams, Oklahoma/USC, 22, 6-1, 214
Sensational as a sophomore transfer at USC, winning the Heisman Trophy by throwing for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. He also rushed for 10 touchdowns.
He then had the let’s-just-stay-healthy blues this past season as a junior.
Cosell scouting report:
- Outstanding feel for pressure and how to avoid and escape to make plays with his legs. Calm and composed.
- Consistently precise ball placement on different kinds of throws. Threw with both velocity and pace and touch.
- Not as accountable to the structure and execution of the system as coaches would ultimately want him to be.
Miller: “For me, Caleb Williams, he’s a superior talented guy. He does have the torque on the ball, he gets a lot of velocity. For me I just don’t like the fumbles. He’s had a lot of fumbles. Obviously, the Notre Dame game was a problem when things didn’t go well. He had a couple really big turnovers in that game. He had a big turnover in the Washington game.”
Drake Maye, North Carolina, 22, 6-4, 223
Maye and McCarthy are the only two from the top six who didn’t transfer and are coming out after just three college seasons, two as a starter.
Like Williams, Maye had a better second college season than third. Threw for 4,321 yards, 38 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions while rushing for 698 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2022. Dropped off to 3,608 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 9 interceptions while rushing for 449 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2023.
Cosell scouting report:
- Desirable combination of size and throwing ability and athleticism. Possesses the needed traits of an NFL QB.
- Strong mental framework reflected in that bad plays did not affect him -- Came right back and made good plays.
- Consistently showed tendency to drift rather than staying in the pocket. Created his own pressure at times.
Cosell: “To me the wild card is Maye because Maye is more toolsy than Williams. There is some concern (because he misses throws). But Maye is 6-4, 225 and that’s a trait. An important trait. He’s a big kid and throws it really, really well. Now he’s got some concerns. In a sense they all do. Rarely does a quarterback come in as a finished product.”
Miller: “Drake Maye I think he’s got a ton of talent. I think he’s a poor man Andrew Luck. He can move. But he’ll sail some footballs. He sailed a couple of balls in his (Pro Day) workout (Thursday). And that’s what he did in college. People said that about Josh Allen, too, so I think he’ll continue to work on his stroke. But that dude has a ton of ability.’’
Michael Penix Jr., Indiana/Washington, 24, 6-2, 216
His medical report is awful – two ACL tears in his right knee that ended his 2018 and 2020 seasons at Indiana, and surgeries on each shoulder that ended his seasons in 2019 and 2021.
But he then transferred to Washington where he stayed healthy for two seasons and combined for more than 9,500 passing yards and 67 touchdowns.
But here’s the statistic Miller loves: Penix took just 32 sacks while attempting more than 1,700 passes in his six college seasons. In his two seasons at Washington, Penix was sacked just 16 times in 1,125 pass attempts.
“People don’t think he can run but he never has to because he gets rid of the ball,’’ Miller said. “He ran a 4.5 at his Pro Day and he was clocked at close to 20 mph at the Senior Bowl when he scrambled one time so I know he can run. He gets the ball out of his hand, he never has to.’’
Cosell scouting report:
- High consistency level of precise ball location on different kinds of throws. Threw with velocity and touch.
- At his core Penix is a timing and rhythm passer executing and distributing within the structure of the pass game.
- Overall ball placement was a bit erratic and that’s a concern given that 95% of his game will be from the pocket.
Cosell: “I really like Penix tape a lot. I’ve seen his tape from the past two years. The reason people probably didn’t know about his athleticism is because he’s really accountable for the system. He plays in the system really, really well. And it’s an NFL system because his OC (Ryan Grubb) is now OC for the Seahawks. You saw a lot of intermediate and deeper throws. He’s good at those.
“I think Penix is a really good prospect. I know people will be concerned about the medical but I guess he did get a relative clean bill of health. I think he’s a little better than is being talked about as a prospect.’’
Miller: “I think he should got ahead of J.J. McCarthy but it doesn’t sound like he will because of the medical. I would out of sheer talent. (Penix) finds passing lanes. He’s like a cat in the pocket. He’s got quick feet to relocate. But even down at the Senior Bowl, he would just flick his wrist and his ball was out in a heartbeat. It took receivers by surprise. He does not get sacked. He processes very quickly and he can find the open guy.”
Bo Nix, Auburn/Oregon, 24, 6-2, 218
After an impressive true freshman season at Auburn, Nix seemed to slip his next two years, no doubt because he went through head coach and offensive coordinator changes.
Nix had fun again after transferring to Oregon where he threw for a combined 8,101 yards and 74 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions while posting a 25-5 record in his two seasons for the Ducks.
Cosell scouting report:
- Played with a calm helmet. 0Never seemed hurried or frenetic in the pocket. Overall a comfortable pocket QB.
- Overall there was a consistent and high-level efficiency to Nix re: drop, set, delivery, reads, precise ball location.
- Arm strength average. Ball does not jump out of his hand; Will be evaluated differently in the process.
- Almost never under center in his two years at Oregon.
Cosell: “I really like Bo Nix a lot. He’s incredibly smart. He’s incredibly aware. Executes the offense. He’s a ball distributor and an executer. And he does have movement ability. He does not have a big arm that could scare some off. He doesn’t have a power arm. And there are some throws where you kind of go, ‘Ooo.’ But I really like the way he plays.
“I’ve talked to Sean Payton over the years but I’m not going to sit here and tell you I know exactly how he thinks. But my sense is he wants a quarterback who is going to play with precise timing, precise rhythm, get the ball out. Throw it accurately. Run the system, yeah, make a play here and there outside of structure. But isn’t that what he wants? Russell Wilson even at his best was not a pure, timing quarterback.”
No, Wilson is at his best when the play breaks down.
Miller: “I like Bo. They run a lot of wide receiver screens out there but he’s a fifth-year player, he’s got a lot of starts, he’s smart. He’s kind of like a poor-man’s Drew Brees. To me he’s at his ceiling. Much like J.J. McCarthy. He can run an offense. He can lead. He can move the chains. They ran a lot of wide receiver screens -- too much for my liking, but he can move the team down the field. He had a good bowl game his year. (28 of 35, 336 yards, 5 touchdowns, 0 picks in 45-6 rout of Liberty). I watched him in the bowl game and you can tell he really takes charge.”
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan, 21, 6-2 ½, 219
What McCarthy has going for him is he’s younger and played under center more than other top QB prospects. He guided Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines to a 28-1 record the past two years – 15-0 with the national championship this past season. His stats where remarkably consistent:
- 2,719 yards, 22 TDs, 5 INTs in 2022
- 2,991 yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs in 2023
Cosell scouting report:
- Showed pocket poise working progressions including full field reads. Stayed mechanically sound with firm base.
- Effective in the designed boot action pass game. Threw the ball well on the move with precise ball placement.
- Not a naturally strong arm. Needs firm base with his front foot pointing to target to drive the ball with velocity.
Cosell: “Would I be surprised if in three years he’s a quality NFL quarterback? No, I wouldn’t. But you would have to really believe strongly in that if you’re going to draft him in the top 10. I don’t think he’s untalented. But it’s not the typical first-round talent. That doesn’t mean he won’t be the fourth pick in the draft. You never know. But his tape does not warrant that.”
Miller: “I’m not saying he can’t win games and can’t win at the next level. Because he ran a structured offense at Michigan and I’m sure a lot of teams like that.”
Others:
Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma/South Carolina, 23, 6-0 1/4, 211
Had a great redshirt freshman season for the Sooners in the COVID season of 2020, going 9-2 with 3,031 yards passing, 28 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions. But then coach Lincoln Riley had to bring in a freshman recruit named Caleb Williams and Rattler lost his starting job in 2021.
Rattler then transferred to South Carolina where he had mixed results in two seasons for Shane Beamer, although he did throw for a combined 6,212 yards and 37 touchdowns.
Cosell: “Rattler is a really, really gifted thrower. You may recall when he came out of Arizona he was the No. 1 recruited quarterback in the country. And he went to Oklahoma, had a great freshman year. Got off to kind of a sluggish start his sophomore year and they benched him for Caleb Williams. At South Carolina they may have had one of the worst offensive lines in college football. And he was always under duress.”
Miller: “Spencer Rattler, I saw him down in Mobile. He was voted the Senior Bowl MVP. So after J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix I think it will be Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler and then it’d be the Florida State kid, Jordan Travis.”
Michael Pratt, Tulane, 22, 6-2 ¼, 217
A four-year starter who in his last two seasons combined for a 23- 5 record, 49 touchdown passes against just 10 interceptions.
Miller: “I did see Michael Pratt. I liked him. He’s a winner. He’s got a lot of ability. He’s a team leader. He’s a four-year starter. His arm talent isn’t quite there.”
Jordan Travis, Louisville/Florida State, 24, 6-1 1/8, 200
Was having a terrific, sixth-year senior season in 2023, posting a 10-0 record with 20 touchdown passes against just 2 interceptions. But early in a blowout win against North Alabama, Travis suffered a gruesome broken left injury.
Joe Milton, Michigan/Tennessee, 24, 6-5 1/8, 235
A backup his three seasons at Michigan and first two seasons at Tennessee, Milton finally became the No. 1 QB in his sixth-year season of 2023. He threw 20 touchdown passes against just 5 interceptions as Tennessee went 9-4.
Miller: “The guy who has the most ability (from the third tier group) is Joe Milton out of Tennessee but that guy is probably going to end up being a tight end. Remember Logan Thomas? He reminds me of Logan Thomas coming out of Virginia Tech. Milton has incredible athletic ability. But he’s a six-year player and the light hasn’t gone on for him. He can throw a ball literally 90 yards. He’s got a ton of ability so someone will draft him.”
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