ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Joe Ellis and George Paton have many difficult decisions to make this offseason, but only one will they make together.
To retain or dismiss Vic Fangio as head coach.
Otherwise, Ellis, the Broncos’ chief executive officer, owner delegee and president, must pick a new owner without Paton’s input. Paton, the team’s general manager, has to pick a new quarterback without Ellis getting involved (with the possible exception of Deshaun Watson).
Fangio is where Ellis and Paton will bond. The emotional outcry from fans and an opinionated media sect who are disappointed with what is certain to be a sixth consecutive season without a playoff appearance and disgusted by the likely prospect of a fifth consecutive losing season say it’s time to move on.
Give someone else a try to lead this team.
Ellis and Paton figure to reach their decision after thorough, reasoned discussion. Multiple discussions. Emotion aside, there are sound reasons to retain Fangio for a fourth season. However, even if emotion is stripped from the decision process, there are also reasons why it would make sense to move on.
Here are the pros and cons of retaining Fangio. Which to list first? A coin was flipped and in honor of the coach’s usual preference, the positive reasons were deferred until the second half of this article.
Reasons to dismiss Fangio
1. 19-28
Head coaching is a bottom-line business. It’s about results. Collective below-average quarterback play over the past three years may be a valid explanation behind those results. But it’s still 7-9, 5-11 and 7-8 with two games remaining in 2021 for the Broncos under Fangio. Some of the more coldblooded bosses would say: ‘Nuff said.
2. 15 one-possession losses
The margin is thin between the good teams and bad in the NFL, as was especially evident this season. Fangio does a consistently good job getting his team prepared each week and to play hard despite the circumstances surrounding the game. But there are critical, in-game decisions that can make the difference in close games. It says here Fangio’s game-management skills have significantly improved over his three seasons. Still, too often with the outcome in the balance late in the game, the Broncos have fallen short.
The Broncos are just 1-20 in games in which they were trailing at halftime during Fangio’s tenure. The win? Drew Lock’s remarkable comeback for a 31-30 victory against the Chargers last season that required a touchdown pass on the last play of the game.
3. Time to go offense
Almost all of the NFL’s most explosive teams have offensive-oriented head coaches. The Chiefs have Andy Reid, the Rams’ Sean McVay, the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy, Tampa Bay has Bruce Arians. Green Bay (Matt LaFleur), the Bengals (Zac Taylor), Arizona (Kliff Kingsbury) and the Colts (Frank Reich) all have offensive-oriented bosses. The 49ers got to the Super Bowl two years ago with Kyle Shanahan.
The Bills are the most notable exception with defensive-bent head coach Sean McDermott, but he also has one of the league’s best offensive coordinators in Brian Daboll.
It’s a mindset. When Mike Shanahan was the Broncos’ head coach from 1995-2008, offense was always the priority. Fangio doesn’t hide the fact he’s defensive-oriented through and through.
Since winning Super Bowl 50 on the strength of their defense in 2015, the Broncos downfall since then has been primarily about their offense. Their average points per game in the six seasons since Super Bowl 50: 20.8 in 2016, 18.1 in 2017, 20.6 in 2018, 17.6 in 2019, 20.2 in 2020 and 19.9 this year. The Broncos have not only been bad, they’ve been boring.
4. Offensive coaching candidates
Doug Pederson, Byron Leftwich, Kellen Moore, Nathaniel Hackett, Brian Callahan, Tim Kelly, Klint Kubiak, Kevin O’Connell, Daboll – and dare we suggest Eric Bieniemy? – are all available during this cycle. Is the next Andy Reid or Sean McVay in this group? There’s also a thought a team is better off going with a CEO-type coach like John Fox was, and Dan Quinn has been. Some believe a head coach’s job is too big to also be handling the play calling for one side of the ball.
5. Fan pressure
Marvin Lewis never won a playoff game in 16 years with the Bengals. Yet owner Mike Brown would have still kept him as head coach if it wasn’t for the estimated 30-40 percent no-shows on game day in 2018.
Ellis was groomed on the business side of the Broncos’ franchise. Broncos fans have always had a voice. And there have been an average of 9,312 no-shows at Empower Field at Mile High the past five home games.
Reasons to keep Fangio
1. Maintain No. 1 defense
To keep Fangio the defensive coordinator, you’ve got to keep Fangio the head coach. And there’s no good reason to fire Fangio the defensive coordinator. The Denver D ranked No. 1 in red-zone defense in 2019-2020 and is tied for No. 1 in scoring defense this year, allowing just 17.3 points per game. If Fangio is fired as head coach the Monday after the season, he’ll have a job as defensive coordinator with another team by Friday. The Broncos, meanwhile, may well take a step back on defense as it seeks a coach charged with improving the offense.
2. Overall step up
Ravaged by key injuries and COVID last year, Fangio did a better job of overcoming those obstacles this year as the team went from 5-11 in 2020 to 7-6 and playing meaningful games in December. They didn’t win those big games this month – losing at Kansas City, home to the Bengals and at Las Vegas to fall to 7-8 – but at least there was reason to pay attention.
When a team has been down for a while, it’s not always an abrupt climb to the playoffs. Sometimes it is, but sometimes it takes a while. A strong case can be made the Broncos are better now than they were when Fangio took over in 2019.
3. Ownership change
Ellis and fellow Bowlen trustees Rich Slivka and Mary Kelly are expected to transfer controlling ownership to either Brittany Bowlen, or an outside investor sometime after a ruling is made in its right-of-first-refusal (ROFR) case against the Edgar Kaiser estate. Judge Shelley Gilman is expected to announce her finding in the next two to six weeks.
Given all the drama among the Bowlen children since their father and Broncos’ owner Pat Bowlen died 2 ½ years ago from complications of Alzheimer’s disease, momentum seems to have swung toward a sale to an outside investor. The trustees have been doing their due diligence in case they do sell, interviewing sell-side bankers that would help broker deals with outside investors. Sources have told 9NEWS that former Broncos quarterbacks John Elway and Peyton Manning are interested in an attachment to the new ownership group, although to what extent is unclear.
Say the Broncos fire Fangio and hire a new head coach in January, and then a new owner is essentially hired in March. Does a new owner want to inherit a five-year commitment to a new coach he didn’t hire? It would be cleaner for the new owner to evaluate Fangio for one year -- the final year of his contract -- then decide on whether he wants a new coach. Fangio recently said he’d be willing to keep his job through the 2022 season without a contract extension.
4. No Pro Bowlers
It’s always the No. 1 question confronting unsuccessful teams – is the problem the coach, or is it the talent? The Broncos recently placed ZERO players in the Pro Bowl. That’s an indictment on the roster, at least from a national perspective. The other four teams that didn’t produce a Pro Bowler all have worse records than the Broncos’ 7-8 mark. This presents an argument Fangio is getting more than most would have out of the talent he’s been given.
5. Keep Vic, but shakeup his staff
Retaining Fangio will almost certainly come with conditions. Like, fix the offense, Vic. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is a proven successful coach in the NFL, and Fangio has supported him throughout this disappointing season. But fair or not, Shurmur has been wearing the largest bullseye for the Broncos’ struggles this season.
6. Keep Vic, get him a QB
In his three seasons, Fangio’s starting quarterbacks have been Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Kendall Hinton, Teddy Bridgewater and then Lock again. Lock is expected to get his second start of the season Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers as Bridgewater is not expected to be cleared from the concussion protocol this week. Fangio has continued to established himself as a defensive guru. By most measures, Bridgewater was a top 15 quarterback this year. Does it make sense to see what Fangio can do with a top 10 quarterback?
7. Recruiting Aaron Rodgers/Russell Wilson
The Broncos went through this last year for naught but after these two star QBs were shaken before staying put, the possibility remains they will be shook free this offseason. It might be easier to, say, sell Rodgers on the Broncos if Fangio was the head coach taking care of the defense, instead of pitching him on a new coaching staff he’s unsure about.
8. Good man, respected coach
Fangio can be grouchy, like all of us can, and it took him a while to learn how to dish compliments. But he treats his players well and the fact they play hard shows they respect him. And Fangio is very respectful of others, even to media members who can be rough with their commentary.
And Paton likes him. Paton and Fangio have a very good working relationship.
It’s about what’s best for the Broncos, not personal feelings. But it has to be easier to fire a jerk than a good man.
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Those are some reasons why the Broncos should retain Fangio for at least one more season, and why it may be best to try someone else. Sometimes a decision becomes self-evident. The Broncos have two more games remaining with both against AFC West Division rivals. Lose these next two against the Chargers in Los Angeles and Chiefs at Empower Field and Fangio will be in trouble if for no other reason than reason No. 1 – it’s a bottom-line business.
But if the Broncos win these next two games how can the team’s decision-makers not bring back a coach who has consistently thwarted young Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and finally beat the Chiefs?
And if the Broncos split their final two games, well, that’s why Ellis and Paton sit in the big chairs and make the big bucks.
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