ENGLEWOOD, Colo — Welcome to the season of the Russell Wilson Fallout.
Everything about the 2024 Denver Broncos begins and revolves around the team’s unprecedented decision to pay $37.9 million in cash, and $53 million in dead-cap space, for Wilson to go away.
The old addition by subtraction strategy.
The Broncos gave up two first-round draft picks, two second-rounders and, as it turned out, $123 million in salary to acquire Wilson. They got nothing more than a two-year record of 11-19 in return.
The Russell Wilson Fallout is one reason why the Broncos begin a new season with their lowest expectations in more than 50 years — since John Ralston’s first season as head coach and football boss in 1972. The oddsmakers have placed the Broncos’ over/under win total at 5.5.
Which means 6-11 would be a better than expected season. (Another reason why expectations are so low is the Broncos are coming off seven consecutive losing seasons.)
“Every year you never know what’s going to happen,’’ returning defensive lineman Zach Allen told 9NEWS last month. “The difference in talent across the NFL is so small. It’s all about culture. Last year, if you looked at the preseason stuff, it was all over the place. There’s always teams that no one expected to be good.
“All that stuff, you just can’t listen to it. You have to just control your own thing. The reason why sometimes teams with the worst record beats teams with the best record is the talent is pretty similar across the board.’’
The Russell Wilson Fallout partially explains why the Broncos let go of several longtime core players like Justin Simmons, Josey Jewell, Jerry Jeudy and Lloyd Cushenberry.
And the Russ release explains why with 21% of the Broncos’ payroll allocated to a quarterback they no longer have, they made nary a ripple in free agency. Instead, the Broncos opted for value fringe starters with potential to develop into something more. Players like safety Brandon Jones, defensive linemen Malcolm Roach and John Franklin-Meyers, receiver Josh Reynolds and inside linebacker Cody Barton.
And yet, more this year than last — when Wilson was still the quarterback, Sean Payton was in his first year as head coach and the Broncos finished 8-9 — this team is closer to Payton’s vision.
“I think the players that we signed, drafted or signed in free agency — man, the new faces we felt really good about,’’ Payton said in mid-June, just before the NFL broke for a 5 ½-week vacation. “You can root for them, but you don’t always know. Defensively, there are a handful of free agents that we signed that are going to contribute. They are going to be valuable pieces and good teammates.’’
The draft brought the Next Great Quarterback Hope in Bo Nix. A five-year college starter at Auburn and Oregon, Nix was both the sixth quarterback taken in the NFL Draft and the 12th player selected overall.
Nix will compete with the returning Jarrett Stidham and newcomer Zach Wilson for the Broncos’ No. 1 QB job.
The consensus was Stidham was the better quarterback during the offseason practices. But the near unanimous belief is Nix will be the starter at some point during the regular season. Maybe even week 1 on Sept. 8 at Seattle.
Broncos and Seahawks. Two teams who have had to rebound from the Russell Wilson Fallout. What a way to start.
With the full squad reporting Tuesday for training camp and the first practice on Friday at Broncos Park Powered by CommonSpirit, here’s a quick look at the three phases of the 2024 Broncos:
Offense
Last season: Given Payton’s long run of offensive success with the New Orleans Saints, the Broncos’ offense was a disappointment last season, ranking just 26th in total yards (298.4 per game) and 19th in scoring (21.0). And the scoring would have been worse if not for a record-setting, four-game run of 15 takeaways by the Denver defense.
Key newcomers: Bo Nix, QB; Audric Estime’, RB; Josh Reynolds, WR; Troy Franklin, WR; Zach Wilson, QB; Devaughn Vele, WR.
Key departures: Russell Wilson, QB; Jerry Jeudy, WR; Lloyd Cushenberry, C.
Top competitions: QB (Nix, Stidham, Wilson); RB (Javonte Williams, Estime’). C (Luke Wattenberg, Alex Forsyth, Sam Mustipher).
Summary: The hope is the offense will be better because the new quarterback, whether it be Nix or Stidham, will run Payton’s play calls as they’re supposed to be run. And the plays will be called on the time. In other words, the offense will be better without Russ. That’s the hope, anyway, although it will be difficult for the new QB to duplicate Russ’ fourth quarter magic.
The Broncos should also have one of the league’s best offensive lines with the well-paid Garett Bolles and Ben Powers on the left side and Mike McGlinchey and Quinn Meinerz on the right.
That should help the running game that should get a boost from the rookie Estime’.
As for the passing game, the return of Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Tim Patrick along with newcomers Reynolds, Franklin and Devaughn Vele should provide more home-run juice to the receiver position.
Adam Trautman returns as the starting tight end, but the receiving TE spot will depend on the further development of Lucas Krull and return to health of injury-plagued Greg Dulcich.
Defense
Last season: Statistically, a horrendous start left the Denver D ranked 29th in yards allowed (370.8) and No. 27 in points allowed (24.3). But that was up from No. 32 in both categories after allowing 35, 70, 28 and 31 points in a four-game stretch from week 2-5.
During the Broncos’ midseason, five-game winning streak, the Denver D gathered 16 takeaways — 9 in back-to-back games against the Chiefs and Bills.
Key newcomers: Brandon Jones, S; John Franklin-Myers, DL; Malcolm Roach, DL; Jonah Elliss, OLB; Kris Abrams-Draine, CB; Levi Wallace, CB; Cody Barton, ILB.
Key departures: Justin Simmons, S; Josey Jewell, ILB; Mike Purcell, NT; Fabian Moreau, CB; Kareem Jackson, S; Jonathan Harris, DL.
Top competitions: CB (Riley Moss, Damarri Mathis, Wallace); ILB (Barton, Jonas Griffith); NT (Roach, D.J. Jones); No. 3 safety (Caden Sterns, JL Skinner, Omar Brown).
Summary: Offensive line may be the strength on offense; defensive line may be tops on defense. The additions of Franklin-Myers and Roach along a front that returns Zach Allen and D.J. Jones should improve two areas: One, provide a better interior push that will help the young outside rushers. And two, do a better job stopping the run after the Denver D was 30th last year by allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game.
Pat Surtain II is an all-world cornerback and Ja’Quan McMillian came on as a legit nickelback last year. Moss seems to have the edge at the other cornerback spot but Mathis and Wallace will be strong competitors.
Jones and Locke will provide better speed, if far less experience, than the Broncos’ previous longtime duo of Simmons and Jackson.
Finding the inside linebacker starter opposite tackling machine Alex Singleton will be a training camp/preseason priority.
The edge rusher unit of Jonathon Cooper, Baron Browning, Nik Bonitto and Luther Elliss is solid, but needs to take it up a level in 2024.
Special teams
Last season: Thanks to Mims, who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie returner, the Broncos were No. 1 in punt returns (16.3 yard average) and No. 8 in kickoff returns (24.9).
Wil Lutz was 13th in field goals (30 of 34, 88.2 percent) and Riley Dixon was 14th in net punting (42.3). Overall, the Broncos had the 7th-best special teams unit last year (per Rick Gosselin rankings), which was up from 25th in 2022.
Key newcomers: Vele, returner; Trenton Gill, punter; Andre Smith, LB.
Key departures: None with linebacker Justin Strnad re-signed.
Top competitions: Dixon and Gill, who was the Bears’ punter the previous two seasons, will be a major mano a mano punt-off during camp and the preseason. The returner spot next to Mims on kickoffs is also a priority.
Summary: The new, whacky kickoff rule — which should allow more returns provided coaches don’t settle for a touchback at the 30 — could help the Broncos win a game or two as they have an elite returner in Mims and arguably the league’s best special teams coaching staff in Mike Westhoff, Ben Kotwica and Chris Banjo.
