ENGLEWOOD, Colo — Before gearing up for the future with the upcoming NFL Draft, think of the Broncos’ standard that has been unapproached in recent years.
In the 44-season stretch from 1973 through 2016, the Broncos had more Super Bowl appearances (8) than losing seasons (7). Seven of those Super Bowls appearances, and all three of their Super Bowl wins, came with either John Elway or Peyton Manning at quarterback. Speaking of standards.
Given this and the team’s ongoing seven-year skid of losing records and inefficient quarterback play, don’t the Broncos have to ignore the standard “best player available” strategy and take the best quarterback available with their No. 12 pick in the NFL Draft next Thursday?
“Look, I mean, do we have to draft a quarterback?’’ said Broncos head coach Sean Payton at his pre-draft news conference Thursday that was held in the concrete-walled media room of the Pat Bowlen Fieldhouse. “You’d say it sure looks like we have to draft a quarterback and yet it’s got to be the right fit. If we had tip sheets as to what everybody else is picking it would be easier to answer that question. And so that’s the puzzle here.”
“What you don’t want to do is force it,’’ said Broncos’ general manager George Paton, who shared the pre-draft news conference with the head coach. “Otherwise we’ll be in this position next year. We’ve got to get the right player at 12, whether it’s a tackle or receiver. We need to get an impact player.”
After the first round, the Broncos don’t have a second-round pick. They then have one pick in the third round, one in the fourth, two picks in the fifth and three in the sixth.
The so-called “starter” rounds are one through three. There the Broncos currently only have two picks, although Paton has been known to make several trades to get more.
For the Broncos, all attention from outside their draft meetings have been on which of the top six quarterbacks they will wind up with pick No. 12. They won’t get Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels as they are expected to go 1-2. There is some speculation Drake Maye will fall from No. 3, but otherwise the choices for the Broncos seem to come from the middle trio QB group of J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. With Spencer Rattler waiting outside the first round.
“Every year 95% of the discussions are on 5% of the draft,’’ Payton said, referring to fans chatter about first-round selections. “It’s hard for anyone to say, I like this guy in the fourth round.”
The fourth round is important to the Broncos. So much so that Paton and Payton have a “haircut wager” on which of their favorite fourth-round graded players will be selected first.
Payton said in the future, the evaluation and selection process may involve using something other than gut instincts and typical analytics.
“Historically speaking you can say it’s not a perfect science,’’ Payton said. “We met last night with our great analytics department and you’re going to see in the next five, 10 years A.I., artificial intelligence, begin to help in this process.’’
How boring. Efficiency is boring. Taking wild swings, good or bad, that’s exciting. That’s how you get Tom Brady and Terrell Davis in the sixth round.
Problem is, that’s also how you get EJ Manuel and Paxton Lynch in the first round and Maurice Clarett in the third. A.I. would figure to take guesswork and emotion out of the process.
“I think there’s always a sense of urgency of getting ahead and creating within the framework of the rules advantages that can help you as a club,’’ Payton said. “We’re always opening the door to be an eager listener to new ways. We have to do that as teachers.
“And the same way when we’re evaluating players. How do we do this better? It just so happened last night we had a pretty lengthy meeting on it. It was fascinating.”
Thing is, the freshly drafted players likely won’t have near the impact on the 2024 Broncos as the current players. One of those current players, top receiver Courtland Sutton, is sending a message he’s not happy with his contract by not showing up for the team’s first week of offseason conditioning.
“It’s 100% voluntary,’’ Paton said. “It’s the first week of the offseason program. Sean has talked to Courtland, I’ve talked to Courtland. He’s in a good place.”
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