ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Since the NFL went to a 17-game schedule in 2021, all teams with a 10-7 or better record qualified for the playoffs.
A 9-win season, though, is a 50-50 proposition – six of 12 teams who finished with 9 wins the past two years reached the playoffs. No 9-win team in the past two years has appeared in the Final Four conference championship games.
The first goal for the Broncos, then, is a 10-win season. The division title? That would be nice, and a first since 2015, but not necessary since the NFL expanded its playoffs to 14 teams, seven in each conference in 2020. Which leads us to the final issue for Broncos Country to consider in the 9NEWS Summer Series:
No. 1: What will the Broncos' record be in 2023?
I’m going with 10-7. Understand I predicted 10-7 for the Broncos last year, also. As it turned out, that was an overly optimistic projection based on new quarterback Russell Wilson playing like he did in his 10 previous seasons in Seattle.
There was an immediate transfer of success for Peyton Manning to Denver in 2015 and Tom Brady to Tampa Bay in 2020. The expectation was Wilson would immediately win in Denver.
Maybe, the problem, in retrospect, was Nathaniel Hackett.
The Broncos better hope so.
This season, there is belief new head coach Sean Payton will bring the winning touch. The 10-win winning touch. Here’s how it will break down:
September (2-1)
Game 1. H, Raiders; 2. H, Washington; 3. A, Dolphins
I don’t care what Josh McDaniels says, Derek Carr was a good quarterback. Carr had won six in a row as the Raiders’ quarterback against the Broncos and registered 16 touchdown passes against just 4 interceptions since the start of the 2015 season against Denver. Carr is now gone to New Orleans leaving the much more beatable Jimmy Garoppolo to quarterback the Raiders.
The Broncos have to figure out how to block Maxx Crosby but otherwise should win their opener at home – and the following week against Sam Howell and Washington.
The game in humid Miami where Smoky Hill High School graduate Mike McDaniel is the Dolphins’ head coach will be a test, especially for the Denver secondary against the speedy Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who combined for 3,066 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns last year.
October (3-2)
4. A, Bears; 5. H, Jets; 6. A, Chiefs; H, 7. Packers; 8. H, Chiefs
The Broncos should win their home games against the Aaron Rodgers’ Jets and Aaron Rodger-less Packers. And Denver will beat the Bears in Chicago in a battle of the NFL’s most sacked quarterbacks last year, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
But for now it says here the Broncos will lose both games to the Chiefs. When the Broncos have the better team is when it will be safe to predict they’ll beat the Chiefs. Which should be perfectly timed for the opening of the Broncos’ new stadium in 2031 (speaking of predictions).
November (2-1)
9. Bye; 10. A, Buffalo; 11. H, Vikings; 12. H, Browns
A relatively light November schedule thanks to a bye week. Can’t expect to beat Josh Allen and the Bills on a Monday night in Buffalo but the two home games are winnable.
December (2-3)
13. A, Texans; 14. A, Chargers; 15. A, Lions; 16. H, Patriots; 17. H, Chargers
On paper, this is the Broncos’ toughest month. They should beat the Texans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. A split against the Chargers is typical but will Justin Herbert become an undisputed top 3 NFL quarterback in his fourth season?
It’s difficult to believe the Lions will meet rising expectations. A surprising season can happen every 10 years or so. But back-to-back good seasons from Detroit? And New England quarterback Mac Jones doesn’t scare anybody. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Broncos could beat this 2-3 December projection.
January (1-0)
18. H, Raiders
If, as predicted, the Broncos are 9-7 and need to win their season finale to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015, they should handle the Raiders – even if the game is in Las Vegas. To repeat, Derek Carr is no longer quarterbacking the Raiders. Now Zach Allen and the Denver D will have to figure out a way to stop running back Josh Jacobs.
There you go. The Broncos finish 10-7 and make the playoffs as a wild card.
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