ENGLEWOOD, Colo — NFL scouting departments can bring in the most brilliant and sophisticated Artificial Intelligence humanoids and arrange for all the Moneyball analytic geniuses to provide their input.
And still figuring out which college prospects for sure will be good and which will be busts will never be better than a 40-60 proposition.
For one reason: Age variance.
The disparity has especially widened in the past three drafts with the added year of college eligibility from the 2020 COVID season and newfound NIL money incentive to stay in college.
In theory, college football more and more has 23- or 24-year-year-old seniors taking on 18- or 19-year-old freshmen.
If the senior dominates – absolutely crushes the freshman – does that mean the senior will be a good NFL player and the freshman will not?
It seems all but impossible to project.
"It’s kind of the new normal with the COVID year," Broncos general manager George Paton said in a sit-down interview with 9NEWS following the draft. "There are age gaps."
The Broncos’ 2024 draft reflects the new age variance. They drafted three players who are 21 years old (outside linebacker Jonah Elliss in the third round, receiver Troy Franklin in the fourth and running back Audric Estime in the fifth) and three players who will be at least 24 years old by training camp (quarterback Bo Nix in the first round and receiver Devaughn Vele and guard-center Nick Gargiulo in the seventh round.)
From here, the estimation is Franklin and Elliss will need a year to develop because they’re so young. But because Estime is playing the young man’s position of running back don’t be surprised if he’s ready to go mano y mano with Javonte Williams for the No. 1 running back spot.
Nix, Vele and Gargiulo shouldn’t need a redshirt year. They should be ready to go sometime in 2024.
But these are just one man’s estimations for 2024. Which players will be identified as hits, and who will wind up misses by, say, 2027? Unless A.I. can predict the future – and heaven help us all if one day it can – good luck.
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