ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Understand that when the 2023 NFL Draft concludes the evening of April 29, the early grades from so-called draft experts on the Broncos’ selections will almost certainly be among the league’s worst. Bottom five, most likely.
This is what happens when 66 players will be picked before the Broncos make their first selection, No. 67 in the third round. At least the Broncos will get a second chance as they also have the No. 68 overall pick.
Still, only the Cleveland Browns, who don’t pick until No. 74 overall, and San Francisco 49ers (No. 99), are standing in line behind the Broncos during next week’s draft.
Houston, Seattle and Detroit – teams with two selections among the top 20 picks – are likely to wind up with a top-5 grade from the so-called draft experts. They better.
That doesn’t mean the Broncos can’t select a Justin Simmons in the third round, as they did in 2016, or an Elvis Dumervil in the fourth round, as they did in 2006, or a Malik Jackson in the fifth round and Danny Trevathan in the sixth round, as the Broncos did in 2012. Or how about another Terrell Davis in the sixth round, as the Broncos did in 1995?
It’s just the quality of those draft picks weren’t immediately apparent. Not even Simmons or Dumervil started right away as rookies.
“It’s very hard to get an impact player in the third round,’’ Broncos general manager George Paton said Thursday during a 50-minute, Zoom pre-draft news conference he shared with head coach Sean Payton. “But we’ll have an idea of how he’ll fit with our team – first year, second year, third year, potential starter, marginal starter. Solid starter. Maybe a special teams player year one. Eventual starter year two. So we have classifications for each player we evaluate no matter what the round is.”
Among other topics Paton and Payton addressed during their pre-draft news conference:
Older prospects
Because of the added year of college eligibility from the COVID season, and the relative ease in which players can now transfer from school to school, draft-eligible prospects are much older this year than in years past.
One of the Broncos’ top 30 visits this month was with Oregon defensive tackle Jordon Riley. He played his college ball at North Carolina, Garden City Community College, Nebraska and Oregon. He just turned 25.
Jerry Jeudy, who is about to enter his fourth NFL season as a Broncos’ receiver, is four days shy of 24.
“It’s challenging right now and we’re starting to get more of this: Usually he’s a fifth-year senior, he’s a fourth-year senior and then maybe he’s a junior,’’ Sean Payton said. “We’ve got six years – he’s been at this school, transfer portal, he’s been at this school and so that taxes our scouting department a little bit more because Tony from Oklahoma and is being scouted by Rich is now at Connecticut who’s being scouted by…and so we’re kind of in this first wave of these players that have played more than five years, COVID-related maybe and have been at multiple schools.’’
Jeudy
George Paton was asked if it was still possible Jeudy, who emerged late last season as the Broncos' top receiver, could be traded – the three-day draft is when many trades are made, mostly for picks but occasionally for veterans – and whether the team would exercise his fifth-year option for the 2024 season.
“We’re really high on Jerry,’’ Paton said. “We don’t anticipate doing anything (trade-wise) with Jerry. We like Jerry, he’s going to be here.”
He did not answer the question about whether the team would pick up the 5th-year option. Here’s the situation: Barring a ridiculous, never-going-to-happen proposal where, say, the Buffalo Bills offer Josh Allen, Gabriel Davis and a first-round draft pick, Jeudy isn’t getting traded. And if Jeudy isn’t traded it would be a shock if the Broncos didn’t pick up his fifth-year, $12.987 million salary option for 2024. He finished last season as the team’s best offensive player.
With the Broncos coming off six consecutive losing seasons, they are not in position to let their best offensive player who is not yet 24 go.
So what kind of player will the Broncos take at No. 67 or No. 68?
The ole’ best player available.
“If the best player on the board is a defensive end or offensive guard and we have clear vision, that’ll happen,’’ Sean Payton said. “Historically people value the cover corners, the pass rushers, the pass protectors and the passers. Historically. Those are harder to find in free agency. They tend to make more money so they tend to be drafted a little bit earlier. They’re valued more by most teams in the league.”
Offensive line
Going back to free agency, the Broncos’ first two contract agreements were with offensive linemen: Left guard Ben Powers for $13 million per year and right tackle Mike McGlinchey for $17.5 million per. It’s a position priority Sean Payton was instilled with while working as Bill Parcells’ offensive coordinator in Dallas from 2003-05.
“Bill thought the offensive line was one of the most important positions on your roster because it permeated the building,’’ Payton said. “He didn’t say it had to be done in the draft or free agency but he just felt that position group was important. Regardless of his philosophy and my exposure to Bill, I think when George and I started that was a focus for us in upgrading and getting our team better.”
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