COLORADO, USA — Here we are not three weeks into the NFL offseason and Broncoland/Broncos Country/ Broncomania is busting out of its orange-tinted skin.
Within seven hours of seeking questions on my 9NEWS Facebook page, the Broncos Mailbag was filled with 39 inquiries. (The Facebook bucket, you'll be reminded, has its share of friends and family.)
The Broncos’ strong finish in 2019 highlighted by the encouraging performance of rookie quarterback Drew Lock, along with an estimated $75 million in free-agent spending power, and up to 12 draft picks has the team’s fans and detached observers anxious to get on with 2020.
The league season starts with the 48-hour free-agent negotiating window on March 16.
Note: I bypassed almost all the draft questions as they are better answered after the Broncos go through free agency.
On to the Mailbag:
Hi Mike, who do you see as the Broncos biggest target in free agent right now?
— Jim Kendrick
Jim, defense, cornerback, defensive line and possibly inside linebacker. Those are the priorities.
On offense, the Broncos will also look to add a veteran backup quarterback, and possibly a receiver. And while they probably would have to wait until the draft to find a new offensive tackle (free agency is flooded with aging left tackles and solid right tackles and the Broncos are locked in with Ja’Wuan James at right tackle) they must address center Connor McGovern’s free agency and possibly one more interior blocker.
I took some educated guesses on names the Broncos may consider in free agency in a story published last week. Read it here.
Why can’t the team make the playoffs? Number 1 and 2 reason, please?
— Mark Demian
Mark, had to duck and stumble back from that high-and-tight fastball you just threw. There are more than two reasons for the Broncos’ four-year playoff drought, but the top two can be pointed at the two most important positions on a football team.
1. Gary Kubiak’s unexpected resignation as head coach following the 2016 season because of how the job was negatively affecting his health.
2. The expected difficulty in replacing the retired Peyton Manning at quarterback.
Broncos faithful are hopeful they now have the correct coach in Vic Fangio and quarterback in Drew Lock.
Another oft-listed reason for the Broncos’ extended Super Bowl 50 hangover would be too many draft misses within the top three rounds from 2013-’17.
Not so coincidentally, the Broncos average slot position entering those five drafts was 27th. They drafted much better in 2018-19 when they picked No. 5 and 10 overall, respectively.
Intertwined with those three reasons is Paxton Lynch. A month after Manning retired, the Broncos took the Memphis quarterback in the first round of the 2016 draft. Lynch was the future. Peyton to Paxton, the heir apparent.
Had Kubiak coached on – he had influence in the decision to select the athletic, strong-armed, 6-foot-7 quarterback -- there would have been a greater chance Lynch would have made it as Manning’s replacement. Kubiak would have at least guided him through a full-season audition. And maybe, with the confidence of playing a full season, well. We’ll never know.
There’s one more reason for the four-year slump and this is going to be a difficult one to shake: The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and the Broncos don’t.
The Chiefs have won four consecutive AFC West Division titles; Mahomes was responsible for the past two. Mahomes reduced the Broncos’ playoff chances to a wild card spot the past two years and as Mahomes doesn’t turn 25 until week 2 of the upcoming season, the Broncos may have a problem for years to come.
The good news is the owners’ latest collective bargaining agreement proposal expands the postseason from 12 teams to 14 – or from six to seven playoff teams from the AFC. With Mahomes playing inside their AFC West Division, the Broncos should welcome a third wild card spot.
Broncos should go after Tom Brady as they did with Peyton at the end of his career. Guaranteed playoffs at least.
— Tom Klis
Tom, Drew Lock, bro. Drew Lock! The difference between your two scenarios is, Manning was 36 years old when he replaced Tim Tebow, whom Elway didn’t think could pass well enough to make it long-term as an NFL quarterback. (Tebow threw just 8 more passes after his magical 2011 season with the Broncos).
Lock is ascending with a terrific passing arm, poise in the pocket and the ability to move around (although he’ll have to clean up some mechanics to find more consistent accuracy.) I don’t want to say Brady is near the end but he will be 43 in August. 43!
Would the 43-year-old Brady be as good as the 30-year-old Brady (2007 season) without Belichick? Would Brady be the 40-year-old Brady (2017 season, when he threw for 505 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks in a 41-33 Super Bowl loss to Philly) in Pat Shurmur’s offensive system and not Josh McDaniels’?
Plus, if you bring in Brady for two years, at $30 million-plus a year, yes the Broncos would have better odds of making the playoffs for a year or two. But you might mess up Lock forever.
I’ve heard Brady has strong interest in the Chargers, who have a nice roster and are moving into a new stadium, and the Raiders, who have a nice roster and are moving into a new stadium.
Miami is another possibility and a return to New England is still the odds-on favorite. The Broncos may pique Brady’s interest because they have plenty of money to spend.
But, bro, the Broncos are going forward with Lock.
John Elway has extended all players that he put the franchise tag on. Do you get a sense a different outcome is more likely to occur if Justin Simmons gets the tag as expected?
— David Kromelow
David, no, I expect the same outcome with Simmons as with Matt Prater (2012), Ryan Clady (2013), Demaryius Thomas (2015) and, the doozy of them all, Von Miller (2016).
All were tagged in March of their free-agent season. All sat out the offseason program. All signed in July, a couple weeks or so before the start of training camp.
The only difference with Simmons is he may push to get a deal done before missing too much of the offseason. This is a guy who not only played every game the past two seasons, he played 100 percent of the snaps.
He told me on the Red Carpet on the eve of Super Bowl LIV three weeks ago: “If (getting tagged) does happen, I don’t know if I’m the type of guy who would sit out. Playing is my passion.’’
Simmons has the mighty Creative Artists Agency (CAA) group as his representatives and my guess is they’ll want a contract average north of $14.5 million per year. The Broncos will look at something closer to $12 million per.
The franchise tag for safeties will carry a 2020 salary of somewhere between $11.5 million and $12.8 million.
The tag deadline is March 10. If a multiyear deal isn’t worked out by then, he will be tagged. And then Simmons will no doubt be advised by his agents to not participate in offseason practices and not risk injury until his contract is worked out.
Passion to play and practice is admirable. Practicing at the risk of losing $25 million to $35 million in guaranteed dollars is unwise.
How do the Ring of Fame honorees get considered and selected? Also, how do we lobby for some past stars, particularly Steve Watson, to get inducted? If you watch his highlights, the impact Steve had during those early- to mid-eighties was major.
(Odoms and Rubin should be in as well.)
— Glenn Hauser
Glenn, there’s an annual meeting, usually in May, of the six Ring of Fame committee members, who are: Former general manager John Beake; former defensive coordinator Joe Collier; longtime executive and current CEO and president Joe Ellis; longtime and current radio play-by-play announcer Dave Logan; longtime former public relations boss Jim Saccomano and longtime former radio play-by-play and color announcer Larry Zimmer.
Patrick Smyth, the Broncos’ current PR boss, submits first-time eligible candidates to the committee and stats and bios of several candidates who are in the hopper for consideration.
I would say former head coach Mike Shanahan is the strongest ROF candidate this year. Among the past players who are deserving, I wouldn’t be surprised if Orange Crush cornerback/safety Steve Foley is first in line. Foley has held the team’s all-time interception record with 44 since 1986.
I agree with you on tight end Riley Odoms and nose tackle Rubin Carter. They are also Ring of Fame worthy – Odoms because he had better stats than Dave Casper and Charlie Sanders, who were elected into the big Hall of Fame in Canton; and Carter because he revolutionized his position.
There doesn’t seem to be much push for Watson – Ed McCaffrey receives far more notice as a ROF omission – but there’s no doubt “Blade” deserves closer inspection.
Watson was one of the Broncos’ first undrafted success stories. Here’s a little-known stat uncovered in the book, The 50 Greatest Players in Denver Broncos History:
In the five-year period from 1981-85, Watson’s 5,107 receiving yards were the NFL’s third-most in that span. Only future Hall of Famers James Lofton (5,804 yards) and Steve Largent (5,242) had more. Among the receivers who Watson out-produced from 1981-85 were future Hall of Famers Art Monk (4,685 yards) and John Stallworth (3,970).
Plus, Watson spent time as a Broncos receivers coach, raised his family in the Denver-area, and is an all-around good guy.
We were tied with several teams for the same record. Why are all of them ahead of us in the draft and will we get to flip-flop in the second round?
— Greg Mares
Greg, the Jets, Raiders, Colts, Bucs, Broncos and Falcons all tied for the 11th-worst record last season at 7-9. But the Jets had the easier strength of schedule so it figures they were the weaker of the 7-9 teams so they get the 11th pick. The Falcons had the toughest schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage so they got the final slot of the 7-9 teams, the No. 16 overall pick.
In the second round, the Jets went to the end of the 7-9 line and will pick No. 48. The Raiders moved up second to the top of the 7-9 slot at No. 43, but they traded that pick away two years ago to the Bears as part of the Khalil Mack swap. Then it’s the Colts at No. 44, Bucs at 45, Broncos at 46, and Falcons at 47.
In the third round, the Colts move up to the front of the 7-9 slot with the No. 75 pick, then the Bucs, the Broncos at No. 77, followed by the Falcons, Jets and Raiders.
Hey Mike, how is Troy Fumagalli working out? Does he have a future in NFL?
— Rob Gillingham
Rob, Troy Fumagalli – the pride of Waubonsie Valley High School on the border of Aurora and Naperville, Ill., and the University of Wisconsin – just made his Broncos Mailbag debut.
Fumagalli came out of college a bit beaten up and missed his rookie season of 2018 because of complications from a sports hernia injury. He played sparingly in 11 games last year, and had 6 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown in the Broncos’ final eight games.
I would say Fumagalli’s career is somewhat at the crossroads here in year 3. He’s got two-way potential – blocker and catcher. But Noah Fant is the Broncos’ clear No. 1 tight end. And veteran Jeff Heuerman has one year and $3 million (with another $875,000 in per game roster bonuses) left on his contract.
At the moment, Fumagalli is the No. 3 tight end, ahead of the ACL-recovering Jake Butt and Austin Fort. Fumagalli needs to impress tight ends coach Wade Harman and new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur during the offseason and into training camp.
Who would be the best right now to replace Chris Harris Jr.? Would it be a trade, draft or pick free agent?
— Carl Villa
Carl, ideally, a first- or second-round draft pick would be the best way to replace Harris, if he leaves for free agency.
A trade would involve surrendering a decent draft pick, or proven player, in exchange for a new quality cornerback.
A free agent signing would be expensive.
The Broncos will look at corners in the free agent/trade market first. If they sign one, cornerback wouldn’t be a top priority in the draft. Detroit’s Darius Slay and Jacksonville’s A.J. Bouye are proven corners who are currently under contract with their teams, but currently are available for trade.
If they don’t sign a free agent or acquire one via trade, cornerback would be taken in the first, or second, or no later than the third round.
Is Case Keenum the next Broncos backup QB?
— Alex Kirk
Alex, wouldn’t that be something? Keenum fell short of expectations as an $18 million starting quarterback for the Broncos in 2018, but he would make sense as a $3 million backup to Drew Lock.
Keenum also had his one magical year with the Vikings in 2017 when Pat Shurmur was his offensive coordinator. Shurmur was just hired to run the Broncos’ offense in 2020.
Just not sure the Broncos will go there again with Keenum.
How is Andy Janovich’s injury coming along? Will he be an afterthought in Shurmur’s offense?
— Chad Chandler
Chad, I hear the Broncos’ fullback is recovering well from his dislocated elbow. He’s been working out, lifting weights. What else you need your fullback to do this time of year?
He should be ready by the start of the Broncos’ offseason program in mid-March.
As for Shurmur’s offense, he used fullback C.J. Ham in Minnesota and Elijhaa Penny the past two years with the Giants. They rarely touched the ball and Shurmur’s fullbacks are asked to pass-block more than others.
But Janovich will draw a guaranteed $1.2 million this year and he’s also an invaluable special teams player so he will carry a significant role this season.
Mike, is the player 5th year option guaranteed salary?
— Todd Allerdings
Todd, guaranteed for injury only, not skill (meaning performance) or cap (financial) considerations.
The Broncos have to decide whether to pick up the fifth-year option on Bolles’ first-round rookie contract, estimated at $10 million for the 2021 season, by May 2.
If they don’t, Bolles would still be with the Broncos in 2020 but he would become a free agent after this season. If they do pick up the fifth-year option, they could still release him if he’s healthy by next March and not owe him anything. But if he can’t pass a physical by the start of the 2021 league year, they would owe him the $10 million.
I don’t think they pick up his fifth-year option but I would expect him to be back in 2020.
Here’s an optimistic way to consider Bolles: Through three seasons, he far outperformed the first three seasons of Arizona left tackle D.J. Humphries, a first-round draft pick in 2016. But Humphries finally caught on his fourth season in 2019 and the Cardinals just signed him to a three-year, $45 million extension.
The point is, the full evaluation on Bolles is a year away.
Do you remember how controversial the Steve Atwater pick was when we passed up a “sure” thing in Louis Oliver? My other comment about Atwater is that it was obvious that TD was the MVP in the Green Bay Super Bowl, but Atwater ran a close second with his dominant defensive play including knocking a Green Bay WR, a Bronco CB and himself out with a single hit late in the game. I’m so glad he made the HOF.
— Jay Edwards, Long time Bronco fan
Jay, the Broncos took Atwater, a bruising strong safety from Arkansas, with the No. 20 overall pick in the 1989 draft. Oliver, a flashy playmaking free safety from Florida, fell to the Dolphins at No. 25.
Oliver played eight seasons and never went to a Pro Bowl. Atwater played 11 seasons and went to eight Pro Bowls.
And yes, on third-and-6 with 36 seconds left in Super Bowl XXXII and the Broncos leading, 31-24, Atwater swooped in on a Brett Favre incompletion and knocked out Packer receiver Robert Brooks, his nickelback teammate Randy Hilliard and himself.
Atwater was woozy on the sidelines for the next play when John Mobley knocked down the fourth down, underthrown pass intended for Mark Chmura to secure the Broncos’ first ever Lombardi Trophy.