COLORADO, USA — LGBTQ voters could play a pivotal role this election season, according to a recent poll conducted by GLAAD, an LGBTQ advocacy organization.
The poll showed that 94% of LGBTQ people plan to vote this November, a statistic that did not surprise One Colorado Political Director Jax Gonzalez, Ph.D.
"Our community can make or break an election," Gonzalez said. "I know that our LGBTQ and pro-equality voters will show up and show out to ensure that we protect the rights of LTBQ Coloradans."
The GLAAD poll also pointed out that an analysis completed by the Washington Post in 2020 showed that LGBTQ voters made up 7-8% of the overall electorate.
In Colorado, voters will have at least one LGBTQ+ matter to vote on. Residents will decide whether to remove a ban on same-sex marriage from the state constitution. Advocates of the LGBTQ community worry that, if the federal ruling on same-sex marriage were to be overturned, there would be no protections for same-sex couples.
"If they were to overturn that in Colorado, we will no longer that right to same-sex marriage," Gonzalez said. "So it’s really important that our voters LGBTQ voters and pro-equality voters, which are bipartisan, come out to ensure that we protect the freedom to marry."
There are also two initiatives Republicans are focusing on that would target the trans community. They have until August to gather enough signatures to make it on the ballot.
One of those initiatives, if passed, would require a public school representative to notify a student's parents if the student is experiencing gender incongruence. Gender incongruence is when a person identifies as something other than the gender that was assigned at birth.
The second initiative, if passed, would only allow female students, assigned female at birth, to participate in athletics events designated for girls.
"So we’re seeing a national trend on attacks on LGBTQ people through legal precedence and through laws and bills both federally and across the states," Gonzalez said. "So it’s incredibly important that we can continue to protect the rights and access for LGBTQ Coloradans."
9NEWS sat down with Seth Masket, Ph.D., a political science professor at the University of Denver. Masket is also the director of the Center on American Politics at DU. He shared why he believed the LGBTQ community could be a major factor this election season.
9NEWS: What are your takeaways from this GLAAD poll?
Masket: Obviously, it seems important. I think we’re talking about, in a presidential election, like a lot of modern presidential elections, will come down to a handful of swing states that are probably going to be won by one of two percentage points each.
So when you’re talking about a population like the LGBTQ population that compromises somewhere between 5-10% of the electorate, that’s [a] pretty conservative estimate, yeah, that could definitely make a difference, how they lean, whether they actually turn out to vote, that can end up making a difference in some of these state elections and ultimately what happens nationally.
This is a group that leans pretty strongly Democratic, we’ve seen that in most modern elections. But according to this latest poll, they’re leaning more strongly Democratic than they have in recent election cycles, but whether they turn out is a pretty important issue.
So turnout is key for this community of voters?
Masket: That’s important for a lot of groups. This would seem to be the LGBT community would seem to be a fairly high-turnout group. They’re more likely to have some money, more likely to be educated, so that automatically puts them in a somewhat higher turnout propensity group. But also, they’re a community at the center of a lot of political conversation these days, a lot of law changes and a lot of different states are being directed at them. So the stakes are very personal for them and this something that will drive a lot of people to vote.
Colorado specifically has a large LGTBQ community. Does this make their vote even more powerful?
Masket: Yes, they could have a lot of strength and I think a lot of elected officials recognize that. We saw this in an interesting way in the recent controversy within the Republican party here in Colorado, when the state party chair put out a state party message that was very critical of Pride Month and called for Coloradans to burn their Pride flags. That got a lot of pushback not just from Democrats, not just from the LGBTQ community but also among other Republicans who recognize this as a pretty vibrant and high turnout group of voters out there who might turn against them or might turn against their party as a result of this.
We've focused a lot on the November election, why should people be voting today?
Masket: These are pretty important because we actually have a number of fairly competitive elections. None of these are likely to lead to an actual change in power here in CO, but the U.S. House is controlled by just a handful of seats right now. Who wins the primary here could make a difference about how those races go, whether we’re talking about CD3, Lauren Boebert’s old district, or her new district in the 4th or the 8th District which is fairly competitive; which Republicans and which Democrats win these seats could actually affect the balance of power in November.
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