DENVER — The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) is watching other countries to see what could come Colorado's way in terms of COVID-19. In particular, they are looking at Germany, Italy, Netherlands and the United Kingdom (UK).
Here is part of our conversation with infectious disease expert Dr. Michelle Barron with UCHealth and Jonathan Samet, the dean of the Colorado School of Public Health which models COVID behavior.
Why monitor Europe?
"UK is probably the most similar to us in terms of the spectrum of vaccination rates," Baron said.
The UK reached record levels of infections experts believe are driven by the BA.2 variant, the omicron subvariant. Hospitalizations and death rates have increased, but are lower than earlier this year.
"In those who have some level of immunity or protection through vaccinations, we seem to see a lot milder course with this," Barron said.
What's happening in Colorado?
CDPHE said the subvariant is in Colorado:
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides estimates of current variant prevalence nationally and by HHS region on their variant proportion page. Currently CDC estimates that 52.7% of cases in HHS region 8 (which includes Colorado) are caused by the BA.2 subvariant.
The number of positive tests with BA.2 has gradually increased in Colorado. Based on data from other US states, we expect that the proportion of tests that are BA.2 will increase."
However Samet said Colorado and the U.S. in general are not following the UK's trajectory right now.
"So far we've dodged a bullet," Samet said. "Look at the number reported by CDPHE, some of the lowest levels for hospitalizations we've seen."
"We are at about the point, expect to start seeing that turn upwards if it's going to happen," Samet said.
Samet said if cases did go up that would happen over the next few years, but anticipates it would be a muted increase, especially for severe cases.
What's different?
Samet said it's not just the vaccine effort but also natural immunity.
"We did experience a lot of people infected with omicron," Samet said, "Perhaps more than other countries. We may have additional protection from that, and we don't quite know what's going to happen yet."
Barron said that while Colorado is in a good zone now, things could change and timing could be a factor if variant cases continue to go up over the next several months.
"The potential for the perfect storm, with immunity waning for those with omicron in January or February," Barron said. "If booster and vaccine rates stay still, a bigger proportion could be vulnerable to this. "
The hope is more people would recover at home and hospital systems would remain below capacity restraints.
"Perhaps we are not as protected against infections as we would like to be, but have high rates of protection against severe disease," Samet said.
As CDPHE's advice on COVID precautions:
"We continue to believe there is a high level of immunity from severe disease in Colorado. Coloradans need to assess their individual risk factors and make decisions accordingly.
The best protection against COVID-19 and its variants is to get vaccinated and stay up to date on vaccinations. We urge all adult Coloradans and all parents and guardians of children 5-17 to make a vaccine appointment, and to get boosted whenever eligible..
Anyone, regardless of vaccine status, who experiences symptoms should get tested immediately and isolate while waiting for test results."
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