DOUGLAS COUNTY, Colo. — As Jeffco Schools prepare to close buildings for lack of students, other districts are seeing a surge of enrollments knowing that they could be there in the future.
The question becomes, how do you plan for something like that?
Chris Fiedler, superintendent for school district 27J, said it's hard on communities and neighborhoods.
He compared families in Jeffco to those in his own district.
"I feel strongly 27J schools are where Jeffco was 30-40 years ago," he said.
His district covers Brighton, Thornton and Commerce City, and it's seeing 500-1,000 new students a year. It could reach 50,000 over the next 15-20 years.
"A common misconception that growth should fund itself because of new students is true in that we get additional per amount per student," Fiedler said of funding the new growth. "It's true we get money from the State Finance Act."
But it's not the whole story.
"We are operating around 80% of the revenue of everyone else," Fiedler said.
Voters did approve a bond, which helps them build out space for students, but the district also saw failed mill levy overrides.
It's a challenge for 27J.
They have to ask for a higher tax increase because property values in the district aren't as high as other metro areas, which puts them at a competitive disadvantage in terms of pay.
This hasn't stopped people with their young kids from moving in, with Fiedler saying the area is comparatively much more affordable for young families to buy homes.
In Douglas County, they're building massive neighborhoods, not schools.
Erin Kane, Douglas County school district's superintendent, said they haven't built a neighborhood school since 2010.
"Are we over capacity? The answer is yes," Kane said.
At the rate the economy and housing market turned around, houses are popping up like crazy, which is why voters will be asked to help pay for three new elementary schools and expand two middle schools.
"At the rate houses are going up, in three years, we will have schools that are 100-160% capacity," Kane said.
At the same time, Dougco is so big that it's experiencing both ends of the problem.
"We also have areas declining in enrollment," Kane said. "I can't pick up an elementary school and move it 20 miles south."
While districts are planning for what they have right now, they know that these neighborhoods will grow up, like Jeffco, and be faced with similar tough decisions.
Fiedler says it's a long way down the road.
While the state population is predicted to keep growing, the 0-17 age group in particular doesn't seem to increase significantly.
The state also says birth rates are down, and that the school age population reached its peak in Colorado back in 2018.
As kid populations grow and slow in neighborhoods as they age, districts will be facing similar situations down the line.