FORT COLLINS, Colo. — This week, Colorado's meteorologists, fire scientists, first responders and more made their way to Fort Collins to attend the Colorado Wildland Fire Conference.
While several seminars and keynote speakers led presentations, one in particular looked at the different ways meteorologists could use different methodology for when it comes to weather dynamics and patterns in determining a Red Flag Warning.
"So right now, Red Flag Warnings ... it's a binary decision-making process," said Scott Stearns, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
A Red Flag Warning means that warm temperatures, very low humidity and stronger winds are forecast to create an increased risk of fire danger, according to the National Weather Service.
There are several contributing factors for when it comes to issuing a Red Flag Warning, but primary criteria include relative humidity of 15% or less combined with sustained surface winds, or frequent gusts, of 25 mph or greater. Both conditions must occur simultaneously for at least 3 hours in a 12 hour period, according to the National Weather Service.
Stearns has been analyzing different ways and dynamics for how to determine red flag warnings within the forecast office, and he presented his methods through data and charts to a ballroom filled with people Thursday.
"Instead of being a binary decision process...we'd like to evaluate them all as one piece. How do they combine correctly? Maybe the RH isn't quite as low as 15%, but the temperature is extremely high and the winds are high. And so that could lead to dangerous fire weather conditions," he said.
Stearns adds that he feels compared to the way the issuance of warnings is looked at now, his proposal would be a "less strict" way of looking at everything "dynamically" instead of "binary."
As far as whether it would lead to more or less red flag warnings, Stearns said it's hard as of now to determine which direction it could go.
"It's just that maybe one day that we would have issued before we don't issue now or vice versa," he said. "I don't see like a net increase or decrease based on the evaluation that we're doing right now."
His proposal would have to go through feedback and a few other steps before moving forward, he said.
"Not even all of the forecasters are looking at it routinely," he said. "It's just a subset of folks that are evaluating it in our forecast office."
The amount of Red Flag Warnings issued in a year can vary depending on where you live.
For example, according to data from the National Weather Service's Boulder office, 57 Red Flag Warnings were issued in all of their forecast area since the start of this year. That number is down compared to the same time last year, when 78 warnings were issued.
Stearns said he hopes that new analysis sparks improvement.
"It's a matter of making sure that we're really forecasting for the conditions out there, for firefighters, for the public in terms of fire weather potential, making sure that we're actually warning folks of problematic fire weather days, not just a couple criteria that are listed in a book," he said.
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