DENVER — Denver Public Schools, Colorado's largest school district, says declining enrollment is requiring them to close some schools and merge others for the second time in as many years.
Total enrollment data from the district doesn't necessarily show that decline, but regional data paints a clearer picture of the problem and why DPS is expecting it to get worse.
"None of us want to make this decision, but it's something that we have to do to make sure that the district is solid moving forward," said Scott Pribble, External Communications Director with DPS.
"We have been seeing for the last several years some declining enrollment across the district, but really highlighting in certain areas in the district, primarily the southwest, the northwest and the central area, we've seen some declines there," Pribble said.
The state demographer said their forecasts predict the number of school-aged kids in Denver will drop steadily through 2038.
Part of that comes from the number of births being down in Denver and around the state. DPS is already seeing that.
"Declining birth rates is really what's driving this," Pribble said. "You combine that with families who are choosing to move outside of the city because of the cost of living here in the city, it all adds up to the situation that we're in."
Enrollment data from the district shows the number of K-12 students increased over the past 20 years.
Back in 2004, DPS reported 69,259 K-12 students. But since 2019, when there were 86,949 students, those enrollment numbers have been dropping slightly. The district reported 85,238 students in 2020, 84,100 students in 2021 and 82,997 students in 2022.
The addition of more than 4,000 new-to-country students in 2023 helped bump those numbers back up.
"But that's not sustainable. We're not seeing the same numbers come into the city this year," Pribble said.
While some parts of the district are growing, allowing them to open new schools, populations have been plummeting elsewhere.
"Over the last five years, we've seen dramatic changes in the southwest, northwest and central locations," Pribble said.
According to regional data from DPS, enrollment in the northwest region is down 9% over the past five years. In the central region, it's down 7%. And it's down 19% in the southwest region.
Those numbers are expected to get worse.
"And when you're talking about a school district of about 90,000 people, that's a lot of students that are leaving the district or are graduating," Pribble said.
That's what's leading DPS to these tough talks of school closures, he said, and why they need to happen now.
"Because if we don't tackle it now, we're going to have to address this again very near in the future and potentially, again and again," Pribble said. "We're trying to get this nipped in the bud now so that it's not a problem we face every single year."
Superintendent Dr. Alex Marrero is expected to announce the list of schools impacted during the school board meeting Nov. 7.