DENVER — The rates of both property crime and violent crime in Colorado went down in 2023, as people seemed to assume they were going up.
Their perceptions reflect a national trend. People across the country said they felt that crime was increasing as it was actually decreasing.
“People rely on anecdotes,” said Jeff Asher, a crime analyst who has explored this void between perception and reality. “And it's very difficult for people to figure out 'have I heard more anecdotes about crime happening this year than I heard through the first six months of last year?'”
Asher wrote about the phenomenon last month in his Substack newsletter after a Gallup poll found 63% of Americans called the crime problem in the country either extremely or very serious. A majority said they believed local crime rates were higher than they were the previous year. At the same time in 2023, crime rates nationwide actually decreased.
In Colorado, a poll last fall by the Colorado Polling Institute found crime and public safety was the second biggest concern for Coloradans, after cost of living. The poll found older Coloradans worry more about the issues, while younger voters were less concerned.
Among the common issues driving the divide between perception and the actual data, Asher said the media plays a big role – noting an old phrase about the media not covering planes that land.
“You really only come into contact with stories about crime when they happen,” he said. “I don't think you guys are doing many stories of hey, there were no auto thefts yesterday, or there wasn't a murder yesterday.”
Social media also drives the problem. Asher noted apps like Nextdoor often don’t provide the needed context that thousands of packages delivered to doorsteps aren’t stolen – while video of porch pirates makes the rounds.
“If you're only getting the information about incidents when they occur, it makes it very difficult for you if you don't have data in front of you or easily accessible data to be able to contextualize all of those incidents in a more coherent narrative,” he said.
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